Eric,
There is a lot of, "it was better then" going on, and my evidence is anecdotal, but...
I heard of at least three of the larger, expensive clubs (six figure buy in) that normally kill 3500 birds every year that didn't make that this year...one was rumored to kill 400 in the opening split and then nothing appreciable until January....and they have habitat, water, food, rotate the gunning, rest areas, you name it. I know of one that is in its either second or third down year; they average 1000-1200 per year among 10 members, 1500 or more on great years...the past two years have been at or below half of their average. I know of some public land hunters who stopped going before the end of the season...this was the best water year we've had in a decade, in my opinion, and the few ducks we had really took advantage of it. If you killed ducks in one spot today, they were NOT there tomorrow, which is unusual for this area...good spots always hold ducks unless they are getting burned every day, until the last year or two. And some places get hunted hard and still produce ducks.
In talking with a few guides, even they are admitting at least their areas are changing; they used to stop hunting at 8:30 because it was either already done or not happening. Now, they stay out until 10:30 or 11 to try and get that one last flock or single or pair...and white-fronted geese are becoming a bigger part of the bag than they ever have.
I also heard several people say that they were killing noticeably more drake mallards than hens this year; one person who had logged it figured their normal kill was 20% hens, and this year was less than half of that...is the hen population down? That doesn't bode well for the entire flyway if it is... And the fact that Arkies are going to places like Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, and elsewhere isn't because they are bored....when they leave the green timber voluntarily during their own season, something is wrong...
I mean, honestly, there were reports that areas in Canada had open water until right around Christmas...Arkansas is just not getting ducks when that happens. Yes, I hold to the idea that there are migrators that come through no matter what, but without cold and snow to drive them, the bulk of the migration will stall out. Add to that:
1. Arkansas sells something like double the duck stamps it used to sell prior to 1999 (been a while since I've seen the numbers, so I may be off somewhat), with no significant increase in duck kill...so more people are killing the same number of ducks.
2. People in the 1970's, 80's, etc. were not as mobile as they started being in the late 90's and 2000's. Everyone had their area or two and hunted it; I know people who will drive across the State if the birds are in, not to mention people from South Carolina, Georgia, etc. who will drive all night to be at the ramp on Saturday morning and drive back home on Sunday afternoon.
3. Better gear, boats, mud motors, etc. means people will stay out longer, go deeper into the WMA's, and try to find those little pockets that before were not hunted as hard.
4. Leasing and lease prices are insane. The secondary and tertiary spots that nobody bothered with or were the, "yeah...my son hunts that over Christmas with his buddies if the water comes up..." are being leased and gunned consistently. Rice field pits are $7000 and up, depending, and those aren't the "good" ones...sometimes that also doesn't include water...that's just to be able to climb into the pit... Up until this past year, if you had a good spot, you might lose it next year to the guys willing to pay another thousand or so...I lost a great spot like that in 2001/02 when the owner told our group he would lease it to us the next year if we matched the offer he'd gotten of $15,000, and that would be one year only, going up after that.
5. Missouri figured out they could be as good as Arkansas and put money into building duck spots. When the RNT crew goes up to film at Habitat Flats with Ira McCauley, it isn't because they are just tired of shooting ducks in the timber. I know they show a variety of gunning, but you get my point.
6. Social media. All it takes is one picture of a guy with three mallards standing by the Bayou Meto WMA sign, and there will be a flood. People just don't keep their mouths shut; there is a whole group addicted to making sure everyone knows they are a Duck Hunter. Literally had someone tell me they got back to the landing this past year after a decent morning and some kids with the jacked up pickup, new guns, expensive boat, good decoys, etc. asked to "borrow their ducks to take a picture to post up"...they hadn't killed anything, but needed that picture...seriously.
I'm hoping this year was an anomaly, but Arkansas' duck hunting really has been on a decline for ten years, but again, in my opinion.
But that doesn't explain where the ducks go above us, either...places in Illinois and Iowa that used to kill ducks and have good flights just don't. Either the ducks are skipping them entirely, shifting east/west to areas of less light/noise/people, or ??? I would like to see gps data, but I wonder if the flyway hasn't shifted at least partially more towards the Central, for various reasons.