Dani.......Hurricane Dorian

P

Paul Taylor

Active member
Whereabouts are you located in FL Dani? I'm sure you're keeping an eye on this one. Next Wednesday landfall predicted? I can't even bring myself to suggest CAT level yet.

Our Gulf marsh in SE LA has bountiful SAV due to the incredibly high Mississippi river flooding since last December. If only we can only survive hurricane season without an "event". (I hate hurricane season)
 
I am in Tallahassee. I am DEFINITELY keeping an eye on this one because Steve was supposed to be leaving this weekend to head to MT and then I was supposed to fly out to meet him next week. However, as the NHC is predicting right now it is headed right for him at Cape Canaveral. Obviously too far out too tell anything on the where and when Dorian will make landfall but the European model (which has been most accurate from what I have seen) is showing it coming into FL around Palm Beach maybe on Monday, cutting across the state and then exiting around Tampa before doing a loopty and coming to visit me. More than likely, it'll just be a rainy kinda windy event once it reaches me because that's about 150 miles of state to cross before hitting the Gulf and it making the turn this way.

I haven't been out to one of the WMAs that is right on the Gulf but that can hold a lot of ducks if it doesn't get inundated with salt water. The last several years have been tough there with hurricane season. I have rarely seen even grebes on the impoundment the last few years.

I hate hurricane season too. Inevitably, Labor Day weekend there is a storm (and that is usually when we head out to MT) that threatens. I was actually kinda excited about this year being an El Nino year but since El Nino is over, it is back to business as usual for hurricane season.

Thanks for checking on me. We shall see what this storm brings....

Dani
 
Wonderful timing again! Skirted the Hurricane last September on a trip to FL, and looks like we will deal with it again this year. Headed down Saturday for the week, so at least it looks like we won't drive through it like we did last year. I am bringing some decoys to paint, so if we are stuck inside for a day or so, I have plenty to do.
 
Watch this one closely, if it remains a Cat 3 coming ashore it'll be a bad one. Hopefully it's a fast moving storm!.
 
Looks like things will get pretty sporty here in Tampa Monday into Tuesday. But the east coast will take the brunt of it.
We will have wind but no worried about storm surge here on the west coast of the peninsula.

Rain will be the bigger worry, we are already saturated from a record-breaking rainy summer, some coastal rivers have been at or near flood stage most of the summer.
We don't have to worry about the house flooding but if we get heavy enough rain, I'll be able to kayak down our street.

I have a skylight i need to get covered up Saturday, and put all the yard stuff into the shed.
And remember to elevate my boat trailer tongue so that it drains better.
Probably gas up the cars and get the camp stoves into the house and test them out too.
Maybe buy some easily cooked dry goods and a case or two of water.
Sure glad we just had that big rickety laurel oak in the back yard taken down.
 
Just watched the weather, and looks like the center of the cone of error is about 30 miles from me. The weather men were saying it could make land fall as a Cat 4. I guess it's going to get pretty nautical around here in the next few days. ya'll be safe.
 
Good luck Jeff. I think the latest I have seen is landfall at Stuart and then it would wander straight up the coast. I think Carl and I are both good overall. And I am sure hoping that it will decide to turn out to sea before it even gets to FL. I know they are talking category 4 at this point but so far the hurricane force winds have been out 15 miles from the center. Hopefully it stays nice and compact so there is not monstrous widespread damage. We shall see. Still four more days til it gets here. I am hoping it pulls a hurricane Floyd and stays just offshore.

But the folk here in Tallahassee are being smart and aren?t taking chances. Lots of people preparing now, for just in case. Michael was a real wake up I think last year for a lot of people. They do not wanna get caught like that again. And I do not blame em.
 
The next 48 hours are going to get interesting as to what this thing is going to do. Here it is the 14th anniversary of Katrina today. I hope to never see devastation like that again in my lifetime.
 
Current Forecast has it slowing down, making landfall east of Ockeechobee and then turning northwest. This will spare us on the west coast of the worst of it but pummel the east coast.
If it slows down anymore, there is a chance it will turn before landfall.
Going to be a long weekend of wait & see.


View attachment 090144_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
 
Hurry up and wait truly sucks sometimes. I have my fingers crossed on it slowing down and not making landfall....
 
Can't decide to come down, or cancel.... leaning to cancel, as regardless of the path, or timing, looks like mostly a wet week?
 
Dave, if it comes ashore, it looks like it may linger a while. I don't know what Carl or Jeff has heard but up here we have been hearing possibly as much as 20" of rain from this storm. The NHC said perhaps as much as 18" of rain for FL.

This is the 11am update...it has slowed down from 12mph earlier to 10 mph now. So maybe it will continue to slow and slow down enough that it makes the turn before coming ashore.

If that happens, then you would likely have great weather for most of your trip (at least my past experience with storms we have had really nice weather following them). If it doesn't, you might have pretty miserable weather for your trip.

145103_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 
Well, much to Maria's disappointment, I cancelled. There is enough drama in my life I don't need to share in everyone else's that is displaced by a hurricane. A co-workers family is moving inland from Melbourne, and with the empty shelves and gas lines, just seems selfish to expect I will vacation during that time. I will make an alternative plan, and catch up at home some too. Stay safe,
 
I believe you made the right call Dave! It'd be rough vacationing during a State of Emergency with folks are draining all the gas and food and water supplies.

I'm hoping this storm drops to a Cat 1 or 2 before coming ashore but it's crawling and gonna dump a ton of rain even up my way in SC. My son in Savannah, GA is coming home tonight and I hope he gets to wait it out here in SC vs return for work next week.
 
The latest forecast sounds both dire and uncertain. Lots of variables, apparently, so hard to predict exact path or speed once it hits land. One of my wife's coworkers has a long distance relationship with a woman in the Jacksonville area who said she waited in line 3 hours today to fill her car with gas.

Dani, if I were you, I'd board everything up and evacuate right to Montana before the damn thing hits.
 
Bob, my fingers are staying crossed that Dorian does exactly that. Luckily, he is staying compact and small so far.

Jeff, if I could figure out some way to spend the last half of hurricane season in Montana and still keep my job, I would board up the house about mid August and then spend the rest of hurricane season in MT.

Three days ago here, people began getting crazy for gas. Not that I blame folk for wanting to get a jump start on their hurricane prep. Of course we didn't have three hour long lines, except maybe at Costco.
 
Looks more and more like Florida is in the clear but the northern Bahamas are going to get catastrophic winds. 160 mph as of this morning. Satellite imagery of this storm is incredible but terrifying.
Long range it looks like the east coast anywhere from Savanah to the Outer Banks may take a hit.
 
This storm is moving like an old blue hair. Unfortunately, it is now up to 180. I feel bad for anyone living in the Bahamas who couldn't get out.

Truly a bad ass blue hair

goes16_ir_05L_201909011452.jpg

 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top