Eric:
I've been involved with the decoy collecting hobby for 30 years or so, mostly small time on a limited budget. I continue to enjoy the hobby immensely, attending several local Midwest decoy collector shows (buy-sell-trade) with hotel room to room trading and table displays.
A quick history: 1934- Joel Barber published a book about decoys. As most of us know, in the 1940's, lightweight, realistic, plastic decoys replaced wooden decoys. Many wooden decoys were lost, discarded,or destroyed. 1950's- a small group of enthusiasts, duck hunters/sportsmen, folk art people, collected, traded and sold the old wooden birds, often for small sums of money. 1960's- Hal Sorenson (Iowa) published a small magazine (Decoy Collectors Guide) with history,photos,advertisements and then, things started to evolve with collectors. Photos and history of decoys/carvers of their regions were submitted and shared, clubs-meetings were started and informal gatherings happened at hotels. Late 1960's- auctioneer Richard Bourne of Massachusetts started auctions dedicated to duck decoys, which was unheard of at that time, and media attention flourished. Prices at auction slowly rose.
Fast forward to the 1980's-90's-2000's. As the economy flourished, auction prices rose. A collector magazine (Decoy Magazine) started featuring analysis of the history and increase of auction sale prices, similar to stock analysis, and then the collector profile changed, as decoys were seen as an investment which could turn a nice profit on resale. Many auction houses became involved, decoys were viewed as merchandise with the main objective being profit, as auction houses charged both consignors and buyers a percentage(10-25%) of sale price. Mega wealthy businessmen, doctors, lawyers, politicians and even movie stars started buying/selling decoys at auction. Record price for a single decoy at auction : $856,000 sold in 2007.
Which brings us to your question, What factors influence a decoy's value? It can be a highly subjective question addressed with stubbornly held personal bias. Typically, there are multiple sets of criteria : 1-Maker/Carver, 2-Region/Flyway, 3-Species, 4-Condition/Original paint, 5-Age/Scarcity, 6-Design/materials, 7- strength of Maker attribution or what I like to call fashion or buyer interest, and 8 - strength of the economy.
The majority of birds sold at auction are old-antique (pre 1960). Recent decorative decoys, although much more realistic, detailed and sophisticated are not in great demand.There's a small group of contemporary carvers who consistently achieve auction sale prices in the several thousands of dollars : Mark McNair, Cameron McIntyre, Frank Finney, Bill Gibian, Keith Mueller and Jim Schmiedlin.
There is a bit of snobbery and arrogance in the hobby. There's a group of seasoned, ultra rich collectors who are aggressive and determined to outbid their competition at auction. Certainly, not my reality. Throughout the years I've made so many friends with this hobby, who like me, just collect for personal enjoyment. To steal a quote from one of my friends, " I've never met a decoy, I didn't like "
Ken Zaborski